Blog

We keep you up to date on the latest tax changes and news in the industry.

2026 Tax Season Update: Why Refunds Are Trending Higher (and What It Means for You)

We are a few weeks into the 2026 tax filing season, and the initial data points are painting an interesting picture for taxpayers. The IRS has released early statistics indicating that the average refund check has grown to $2,476, up from $2,169 at this time last year. While a 14.2% increase—roughly $300—is a welcome improvement, it is admittedly lower than the $1,000 surge that many analysts predicted following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

However, it is vital to remember that we are still in the early innings. As more complex returns are processed, these averages will likely shift. The current upward trend confirms that the new tax provisions are beginning to take effect, but realizing the full benefit requires a strategic approach to your filing.

Professional reviewing financial data on a laptop

The Policy Shifts Driving Refunds Up

The OBBBA introduced a suite of specific deductions and credits designed to lower taxable income. Understanding which of these apply to your situation is key to maximizing this year's return:

  • Overtime Pay Deduction: A significant change for hourly workers, the FLSA-mandated "time-and-a-half" pay is now deductible, capped at $12,500 for singles and $25,000 for married joint filers.

  • Qualified Tips Deduction: For those in roughly 70 designated service occupations, up to $25,000 in tips can now be deducted. Note: Both the overtime and tips benefits are subject to income phase-outs starting at $150,000 MAGI ($300,000 for joint filers).

  • Auto Loan Interest: If you purchased a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, you may deduct up to $10,000 in interest, provided the loan is secured by the vehicle.

  • Standard Deduction & Senior Bonus: The standard deduction has been raised to $31,500 for married couples ($15,750 for singles). Crucially for our clients approaching retirement age, there is an additional $6,000 "Senior Bonus" for taxpayers aged 65 and older, regardless of whether they itemize.

  • SALT Cap Relief: Of particular interest to homeowners in areas with higher property taxes, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has quadrupled to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). This is a game-changer for avoiding the previous $10,000 cap that penalized many property owners.

  • Child Tax Credit: This credit has been bumped to $2,200 per child, though high-income phase-outs still apply ($400,000 for joint filers).

Calendar and tax paperwork on a desk

Technical Factors Influencing Your Refund

Beyond the new legislation, other mechanical issues are inflating refund sizes. Because many tax cuts were enacted retroactively or mid-year, IRS withholding tables were not updated in real-time. This means many employees had too much tax withheld from their paychecks throughout 2025, resulting in a larger "correction" refund now.

Additionally, inflation adjustments to tax brackets have helped mitigate "bracket creep," keeping more of your income taxed at lower rates despite cost-of-living increases.

Navigating IRS Challenges

This filing season is also a stress test for the IRS itself. Following a workforce reduction of 25% since January 2025, the agency is managing a substantial backlog. We have already observed a slight dip in processing speeds (down roughly 3%).

If you have a complex financial picture—whether that involves trust accounts, real estate transactions, or business ownership—you might be hesitant to file for fear of audit or error. Do not let the new regulations paralyze you. Our firm is thoroughly versed in every line item of the OBBBA. We are here to ensure you capture every deduction, from the new SALT limits to the senior bonuses, without triggering compliance issues. Contact us today to ensure your 2025 return is optimized for the best possible outcome.

Share this article...

Sign up for our newsletter.

Each month, we will send you a roundup of our latest blog content covering the tax and accounting tips & insights you need to know.

I confirm this is a service inquiry and not an advertising message or solicitation. By clicking “Submit”, I acknowledge and agree to the creation of an account and to the and .

We care about the protection of your data.

James T. Neilson We love to chat!
Please feel free to use our Ai chat assistant or use the contact button to contact us.
Please fill out the form and our team will get back to you shortly The form was sent successfully